The Death of Vinyl Records? I Think Not

In a response to a New York Herald article that claimed he was grievously ill or dead, Mark Twain famously retorted, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

Just as Mark Twain’s response to the New York Herald, a similar sentiment could be expressed towards the recent Billboard Music Consumption report. The report seemed to signal the demise of the ‘Vinyl Revival’ with a reported 33% drop in vinyl record sales in 2024. However, this is not the full story. 

Not only is that number a “great exaggeration”, but it is also completely false.  

The problem lies in a recent change at the end of 2023 in how the data is collected by Luminate, which supplies the data with which Billboard compiles its reports. I have written about this change and predicted what might happen on the Joy of Vinyl YouTube channel. The numbers reported in 2024 cannot be compared to those collected and calculated in previous years. 

I won’t repeat everything I’ve written or said previously on the matter, but it boils down to this, Luminate’s prior process involves extrapolating sales data from a subset of independent record stores and distributing that to consumers such as Billboard. Sales, as collected by Luminate, are based on numbers received from 409 stores (only a quarter of the independent record stores in the US). 

I think you see where this is going – not all retailers are reporting data. To top it off, Luminate’s numbers do not include resale data (sales of used records). It almost goes without saying that used records account for a considerable portion of independent record store sales.

To make matters worse, once published by Billboard, a number of publications ran with this story, erroneously blaming high prices and greed for turning folks away from vinyl. While it is true that record prices have increased, sales have not dropped by 33%. In fact, Luminate has clarified that vinyl record sales have (wait for it…) increased by 6.2% when comparing 2024 to 2023 through Q3.

In fact, independent record stores have indicated a growth in vinyl record sales, and Warner Music Group has also reported a positive trend, which is in line with Luminate’s correction.

Mark Twain is also credited to have said, “Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.”

It seems to be a timeless problem.